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IBF301_Final Essay_2022
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Question 12 of 40
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The current spot exchange rate is usd1.55/eu and the three-month forward rate is usd1.50/eu.You enter into a short position on eu 1,000. At maturity, the spot exchange rate is usd 1.60/eu.How much have you made or lost?
A. Lost usd50
B. Lost usd100
C. Made usd100
D. Made usd150
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No Arbitrage Forward rate = Spot Rate * (1 + RD)/ (1 + RF)
where Rp is the interest rate in the domestic country, in this case United States
RF is the interest rate in the foreign country, in this case Germany
Thus, using this formula, the no arbitrage forward rate should be = 1.6 * (1 + 2%)/ (1 + 4%) = 1.6 * 1.02 / 1.04 = $1.57 approximately However, the actual forward rate = $1.58/€Hence, there is an arbitrage opportunity.
Suppose an arbitrager borrows 1,000,000 in the United States at 2%.
Thus, after one year, he has to pay back 1,000,000 * (1 + 2%) = $1,020,000
He converts 1,000,000 into Euros at the spot exchage rate of $1.60/€.
Thus he gets 1,000,000/1.6 = €625,000
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The arbitrager now invests this money in Germany at 4%.At the same time, he enters into a forward contract to convert the money that he will get US Dollars at a forward rate of $1.58/€
After 1 year, he gets 625,000 * (1 + 4%) = €650,000
He converts this money into USD at the exchange rate of $1.58/€ (at which he entered th Thus he gets 650,000 * 1.58 = $1,027,000
Amount he has to pay back = $1,000,000 * (1 + 2%) = $1,020,000
Net cash flow for the year through this arbitrage = $1,027,000 - $1,020,000 = $7,000
8:43 AM
11/9/2022
